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Wang Tao of UBS: It is estimated that deficit ratio will approach 4% of its financial resources or increase its investment in social security medical care next year. Wang Tao, head of Asian economic research and chief China economist of UBS, said that China's fiscal deficit ratio is expected to approach 4% next year, and the scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds excluding capital injection into state-owned banks may be 2 trillion yuan, and the amount of new local government special bonds may be 4.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan. In fact, the fiscal expansion next year is relatively mild compared with the fiscal stimulus in 2008-2009. Wang Tao believes that next year, the government will increase investment in social security and medical care, and establish a more perfect social security system while boosting residents' confidence in the short term.Today, there is a wave of daily limit in the two major outlets. "No bean bags, no AI." With the continuous fermentation of the concept of bean curd in A-shares, some investors shouted such a slogan. Bean bag+toys, bean bag+advertising and marketing, bean bag+data, bean bag+computing power, bean bag+headphones ... Haitian Ruisheng, Runxin Technology, Shengguang Group and other concept stocks have caused continuous market pursuit. This morning, the concept of bean curd became active again, and the AI application end and hardware end of bean curd rose together. Lexin Technology, Zhongke Lanxun, Juxin Technology and Hengxuan Technology, which are known as the "four little dragons" of end-side AI SOC (system on a chip), rose collectively in intraday trading. Runze Technology, a computing stock, rose more than 16%, and its share price reached a new high. In addition, this morning, the market paid more attention to the concept of starting economy, and the exhibition and IP economy sectors rose. The ground element fashion gap opened higher, and it didn't take long for the daily limit to open. The reason is that Shanghai Disu Fashion Co., Ltd. was listed in the "2023 Shanghai First Economic Leading Brand List" published at the end of last year. (CSI)Luo Zhiheng, Yuekai Securities: It is expected that the monetary policy will be further strengthened in 2025, or the RRR will be lowered or the interest rate will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points respectively. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11 to 12. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and dean of the research institute of Yuekai Securities, believes that overall, the tone of the meeting is more positive, and positive signals are released in terms of work objectives, policy tone and task deployment next year, which is conducive to strengthening and consolidating the momentum of sustained economic recovery next year. It is still a high probability that China's economy will achieve a growth rate of around 5% next year, as long as we implement greater fiscal and monetary policies, ensure that the policies work in the same direction, and promote a series of institutional reforms that restrict development. Luo Zhiheng predicts that in 2025, the monetary policy will be further strengthened, and the RRR and interest rate will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points respectively throughout the year; Rhythm or more advanced. In addition, the monetary policy toolbox will be further enriched and improved. On the one hand, it will adjust and optimize the policy tools such as refinancing of affordable housing, "convenient exchange of securities, funds and insurance companies" and stock repurchase and refinancing, which will be implemented and achieved practical results; On the other hand, we may appropriately narrow the width of the interest rate corridor and guide the money market interest rate to run smoothly around the policy interest rate center.

South Korea's South Gyeonggi Police Department was detained and searched. The South Korean police responsible for investigating the martial law storm said on the 13th that it was detaining and searching the South Gyeonggi Police Department. According to Yonhap News Agency and other media reports, the special investigation team of the National Investigation Headquarters under the South Korean Police Department sent investigators to the South Gyeonggi Police Department on the same day to detain and search the director's office and obtain computer and business information. The report said that after the martial law was announced on the evening of the 3rd, the southern police department of Gyeonggi deployed police to the building of the Central Election Management Committee in Guochuan City, Gyeonggi Province and the election training institute in Suwon City, Gyeonggi Province.Chengdu Luqiao invested in the establishment of a mining company in Inner Mongolia. According to the enterprise survey APP, recently, Harqin Banner Beichenxing Mining Co., Ltd. was established, with Hu Wen as the legal representative and a registered capital of 10 million yuan. Its business scope includes: metal ore sales; Non-metallic minerals and products sales; Manufacturing of nonmetallic mineral products; Mineral processing; Mineral washing and processing; Non-metallic waste and debris processing, etc. Enterprise survey shows that the company is indirectly wholly-owned by Chengdu Luqiao.Guosheng Financial Holdings hit the daily limit in the afternoon and staged the "Earth Sky Board". The turnover exceeded 3.5 billion yuan, and the stock price approached an all-time high.

The customer service said that the technical department was working hard to find out the reason. Today, many netizens reported that there was a problem with the Lingke App, such as "the network was disconnected", "the App was out of position" and "the App should be repaired quickly". Many netizens left a message under the official website of Lingke Auto. Linke customer service said that at present, the technical department is working hard to investigate the reasons, and it is recommended that you use the remote control key or NFC key to drive the vehicle in the near future. Some netizens ridiculed that it was not a broken pole, and it was broken into a collar. Recently, Geely's shareholding has experienced a business crisis, and Link is also a brand of Geely. (Sina Technology)Ping An Securities: It is estimated that the overall net profit growth rate of listed banks will be 1% in 2025. Ping An Securities released the annual strategy report of the banking industry in 2025, saying that looking forward to 2025, the insufficient effective demand and the continuous pressure on asset-side pricing level are still important factors restricting the upward flexibility of bank profits. On the one hand, the inhibitory effect of insufficient effective demand on scale growth still exists, and it is estimated that the scale of new credit will be 17.9 trillion to 19.2 trillion yuan in 2025, corresponding to the year-end growth rate of 7.0%-7. On the other hand, the level of interest margin is also subject to the downward trend of asset-side pricing level, and factors such as LPR reduction, stock mortgage adjustment and implicit bond swap will continue to impact asset-side pricing. However, considering the acceleration of the reduction of deposit listing interest rate, the improvement of deposit repricing progress, and the supervision of manual interest payment and interbank liabilities, it is expected that the decline of interest margin will be slightly narrowed in 2025. In terms of asset quality, it is expected to remain stable, the policy will continue to exert its efforts to bottom out risks, the core indicators are expected to remain stable, and the provision is expected to continue to feed back the profit level. On the whole, it is estimated that the overall net profit growth rate of listed banks will be 1.0% in 2025. The idea of stock selection is "high dividend+pro-cyclical", and policy combination boxing promotes the repair of plate valuation.Outlook of Consumer Industry of Minyin Securities in 2025: The expansion of domestic demand grasps the opportunity of differentiation and change. Minyin Securities released a report on the outlook of consumer industry in 2025, saying that consumer demand is generally weak in 2024, and price factors also restrict growth. Looking forward to China's consumer industry in 2025: (1) Consumption plays a leading role and expanding domestic demand is in a more priority position. The variety and scale of trade-in of consumer goods are expected to continue to expand, and local governments will also introduce new policies to promote consumption in light of local conditions. (2) Rational consumption is more differentiated, and consumers pay for quality-price ratio and spiritual experience. The performance of Tou International Consumer Goods Company in China is also characterized by differentiation. Most of them recognize the long-term value of the China market. Despite short-term challenges, they plan to focus on strengthening localization and continue to invest in the China market. (3) When Trump comes to power, consumption will face greater challenges, and it will require higher global supply chain integration ability, diversified layout and localization ability. It is suggested to grasp the main line of domestic demand expansion, including dairy products with expected improvement at the bottom, outdoor sectors with high prosperity and tidal play sectors. If the demand recovers as scheduled, the catering/sports shoes and clothing/chain retail industry in a period of change will be flexible. In terms of export chain, it is necessary to observe whether the risk of trade friction is fully priced. In the medium term, the overseas market is vast, and the key to success is the added value and bargaining power of products, the matching degree between overseas demand and overseas supply chain, and the global diversified layout.